Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Upcoming BEV updates

Image result for opel ampera e
2017 Opel Ampera-e

Discussing the upcoming Paris Auto Show with one of EVS readers, we have reached a timeline for a number of upcoming BEV models:


Chevrolet Bolt / Opel Ampera-e - November symbolic arrival, deliveries ramp-up in December;

Opel version arrival in April in selected markets, dissemination across the continent in the 3/4 following months; 


Faraday Future SUV - Somewhere in the second half of 2017, we will see the first production units being delivered;


2018 Hyundai Ioniq BEV (40 kWh?) - Late 2017;



2017 Kia Soul EV (36 kWh) - January 2017;



2017 Nissan Leaf (40kWh battery) - November 2016 arrival, full scale deliveries in December;


Nissan Leaf II - 3Q 2017;



Renault Zoe 40 kWh - November arrival, full scale deliveries in December;


Renault Twingo EV & Nissan B compact EV - Q1 2017?


2017 Smart ED - December 2016?



Tesla Model 3 - First symbolic deliveries in September 2017, rest of the year to fine tune production, with moderate production quantities and high level of QC. USA-destined units. 

Beginning of 2018, significant ramp up, mainly targeted to North America. 

Second half of 2018, full scale production for all markets.


2017 Volkswagen BEV's - Larger batteries to arrive in January 2017.



Is anyone missing?

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Portugal August 2016

Image result for Mercedes C350e Portugal
Expensive (51k  €) and with a small electric range (31 kms NEDC), this Merc is one of the least
interesting PHEV's on the market, but fleet owners  in Portugal love them. for the wrong reasons

Mercedes C350e #1 

EV Sales continue on a healthy pace, despite August being a slow selling month (Locals flock to the Algarve beaches), sales were up, to 108 units, keeping the EV Share above 0.7%.

With four five leadership changes this year and three different models passing by the leadership, this is turning out to be one of the most entertaining rankings to look at, with August being no exception, due to a sales slump from the Nissan Leaf (8 units, worst result of the year), the fleet-favorite Mercedes C350e (18 units) rose to #1, with the Bronze medalist Outlander PHEV also off to vacations (9 units, worst result in 2016), the Merc won a precious advantage over its two direct competitors. 

Besides Mercedes, there was another German automaker with reasons to be happy, the BMW i3 tied with the Merc C350e in the August Best Seller trophy, with 18 units, while the BMW 330e has beaten its personal best, registering 12 units and climbing to #7 in the YTD ranking. Were not the Bavarian sedan production constrained and it would probably outsell its Mercedes arch rival...

In the manufacturers ranking, there's also a close race, with Mercedes (18%) rising to the leadership, but Nissan (18%, down 1%) is still dangerously close, while the Third placed Mitsubishi (14%, down 2%) has BMW (13%) closing in.

Pl
Portugal
August
2016
%
Pl '15
1
2
Mercedes C350e
Nissan Leaf
18
8
195
187
17
16
5
2
3Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV916514
1
4BMW i3 *
18
125
11
3
5
5
7
8
9
10
11
11
13
13
15
16
17
18
18
20
21
22
22
24
Volvo V60 Plug-In
Renault Zoe
BMW 330e
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Renault Twizy
Volvo XC90 T8
Renault Kangoo ZE
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
Kia Soul EV 
Volkswagen Passat GTE
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
Volkswagen e-Golf
Tesla Model S
BMW i8
Mercedes B250e
BMW X5 40e
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
Mercedes S500e
Toyota Prius Plug-In
Volkswagen e-Up!
11
5
12
5
4
2

2
2
3

5

1
1

1


1
102
102
35
30
25
20
16
16
15
15
14
13
11
10
10
9
8
5
5
4
9
9
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
9
4
N/A
11
6
28
12
N/A
16
N/A
10
18
16
20
15
25
N/A
20
8
14
24
26
27
27
27
27
Peugeot iOn
Audi A3 e-Tron
Citröen Berlingo EV
Smart Fortwo ED
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Mercedes GLE500e




4
3
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
18
30
22

N/A

TOTAL1081.148100

Source: ACAP

* - 14 BEV + 4 REX



Plug-Ins Versus Regular Hybrids


PlModel   Aug. 2016 
1Toyota Yaris Hybrid61
2Toyota Auris Hybrid51
3Mercedes C350e18
4BMW i318
5BMW 330e12
  
If we combine regular hybrid sales with plug-ins, the usual two (Auris & Yaris) are in front, followed by the plug-in hybrid version of the Mercedes C-Class (C350e), tied with the BMW i3, while another PHEV shows up in #5, with the BMW 330e appearing for the first time in this ranking


Monday, September 26, 2016

UK H1 2016 (Top 10)



Premiums on the Attack Edition

Over 18.000 plug-ins were sold in the first Quarter of the year in the UK, up 30% YoY, down from the three digits growth rates of last year, but still firmly in positive territory and allowing the EV Share to climb to around 1.3%.

Looking at the models ranking, Britain's most popular plug-ins, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV and Nissan Leaf, which in 2015 owned two thirds of the market, have lost momentum, if the Mitsubishi SUV still holds the leadership, despite a 24% sales drop, the Leaf not only lost the Second position to the Mercedes C350e, but is now seeing its Third Spot endangered by another Premium offering, the BMW 330e, that has jumped five places in three months, it will be a question of time until the Bimmer reaches the last place of the podium.

It wouldn't be surprising if, in a few months from now, the monthly leadership becomes an exclusive race between the Mercedes and BMW midsize offerings.

Despite dropping one position, the Tesla Model S saw their deliveries grow three fold, all while in the B-Segment/subcompact class, the Renault Zoe continues ahead of the BMW i3, but probably not for long, when the 33kWh version of the German hot hatch arrives, it will probably go on Hyperdrive mode and surpass not only the French product, but also a couple more in front of it.

In the manufacturers ranking, Mitsubishi is still ahead of the pack, with 27% share, but it is followed by the increasingly menacing BMW (17%) and Mercedes (16%).

A final reference for the seven Toyota Mirai registered, a car that sits beautifully the British landscape in places like Hull-upon-Haven.

Pl
UK
H1 '16 % '16H1'15Pos. '15
1Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV5.145276.7931
2Mercedes C350e2.76815N/AN/A
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Nissan Leaf
BMW 330e
Tesla Model S
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Renault Zoe
BMW i3
Volvo XC90 T8
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
1.620
1.465
1.291
1.261
1.041
891
773
421
9
8
7
7
6
5
4
2
2.982
N/A
349
350
706
950
N/A
309
2
N/A
8
5
4
3
N/A
9








Source: RAC

Friday, September 23, 2016

Looking for EV's - Oslo, Norway


Having spent these last days in Oslo, i can assert that this is the place where the title of this tag of articles makes less sense, because EV's were...Everywhere.

Specialists have crowned Oslo as the EV Capital of the World, and rightly so, because the typical Tron-like zoom is already part of the sound-landscape of the city, sure, the diesel-clattering is more common still, but it was also relatively easy to find lines of two or three electric cars on the road.

But first things first, before getting to Oslo, one must leave the airport and travel between the local airport and the city itself, it is a 20 to 30 minutes trip on the highway, where one can see a major difference between the first kilometers, where electric cars were rarer and composed mainly by Tesla Model S, Nissan Leaf and VW e-Golf, and the final kilometers, closer to the urban toll, where EV's are not only more common and diverse, but you start to see the I-Miev triplets, among other small cars. 

There i realized my first Oslo lesson...

Lesson Number One - Many drivers drive EV to avoid Urban Toll.


At 660.000 inhabitants, Oslo is not one of that large Metropolis with high rises and congested streets, here the vibe is more relaxed and the large amount of regular hybrids (More popular than plug-ins) and EV's zooming around just add to that feeling.

Plug-in owners might start to stress when they want to park and charge at the same time, while there are parking lots with multiple charging plugs, like the one pictured above, the city downtown hasn't got that many side way charging, and the places that had them, were always full.

This is probably an impossible equation to solve, but the city center, which was the only place where there was high vehicle density and stop-and-go traffic, there is little possibility to charge there.

Lesson Number Two - Charging is more needed where there is more traffic density. 

Lesson Number Two B - Utility companies have a good opportunity here, paid charging at city centers are a guarantee of high rotation and continuous revenue.


But for drivers that don't mind walking a few minutes, just outside the city center there are a number of parking lots with EVSE, with the most interesting of them being the one pictured above, close to the City Harbour, which has some 20 to 30 charging spots to charge, with the most interesting bit being the fact that ICE vehicles are not allowed to go into this parking lot.

At the time of the visit, in the middle of the afternoon, the parking was half full, which meant some 10/15 EV's charging at once in the same place and no gas car in sight...

Never like then i felt the EV future so close.


Thursday, September 22, 2016

Belgium August 2016




Running Hot 


August is usually a slow selling month in Belgium, as locals enjoy the Summer time, but this time, plug-in sales were hot, with 726 units, up 151%(!), with the EV Share up to 1.6%.

As usual, AWD vehicles continue to top the ranking, with all Top 5 places in August belonging to such vehicles: The BMW X5 PHEV (78 units) this time was the Monthly Best-Seller, followed by another Bimmer, the 225xe Act. Tourer (65), while the Volvo XC90 T8 (58) ended in Third and the Tesla Model S and Porsche Cayenne PHEV (56) were tied in #5. With this kind of company, the BMW MPV almost looks like a Working-class-hero...

Looking at the YTD ranking, no surprises in the top positions, we have to go down to the Seventh Place to see some changes, with the BMW 330e (53 units, pb) rising two positions to #7, while at the same time managing to surpass its arch-rival Mercedes C350e and become the best selling plug-in of the D-segment/midsize class.

Speaking of midsize cars, last year winner, the Volvo V60 Plug-in, that was somewhere lost in combat, jumped five positions to #15, thanks to a surprising 39 units, it's best result since last November.

Underlining the never-ending appetite of this market for SUV's, the two models with highest rises in the ranking are two recent additions to that class: The Audi Q7 e-Tron rose one position to #26, while the Mercedes GLC350e did even better, jumping three positions to #23.

Two new (And expensive) models have arrived with a bang, the Tesla Model X reached Belgian shores with an impressive 27 units score, the best debut month ever by a model in Belgium, while the BMW 740e also landed with a surprising 18 units, in unrelated news, its Mercedes S500e rival registered 4 units, its worst performance in a year...

In the manufacturers ranking, leader BMW (29%, up 1%) continues to increase share, while Volvo (20%, down 1%) is continuously dropping share. Thankfully for the Swede, the Third Placed Porsche (11%) and #4 Mercedes (10%) are still far.

Looking at the BEV/PHEV breakdown, Belgium is starting to look more and more like the Netherlands in past years, plug-in hybrids have increased their share to 74%, up 21%(!) regarding last year. 

As for FCEV's, in 2016 there were registered 10 units, nine of them being Mirai(?!?), a 150% growth rate regarding 2015, when there were registered a grand total of...4 units.


PlBelgiumAug.YTD%'15Pl
1Volvo XC90 T8 581.1641913
2BMW X5 40e 788291415
3
4
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
Tesla Model S
56
56
590
457
10
7
2
1
5Nissan Leaf2037168
6BMW 225xe Active Tourer653335N/A
7BMW 330e532524N/A
8BMW i3 *3224743
9
Mercedes C350e
13221416
10Mercedes GLE500e15194327
11Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV1515836
12
13
14
15
16
Renault Zoe
Volkswagen Passat GTE
Audi A3 e-Tron
Volvo V60 Plug-In
BMW i8
17
32
3
39
11
153
143
99
89
84
3
2
2
1
1
18
33
7
4
9
17
17
19
20
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Mercedes B250e
Mercedes S500e
Mercedes GLC350e
4
9
4
20
73
73
66
59
1
1
1
1
5
11
14
N/A
20
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
32
34
35
35

Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia **
Porsche Panamera Plug-In
Renault Twizy
Toyota Prius Plug-In
Renault Kangoo ZE 
Audi Q7 e-Tron
Volkswagen e-Golf
Tesla Model X
Kia Soul EV
BMW 740e
Peugeot iOn
Citroen C-Zero
Volkswagen e-Up!
Citröen e-Mehari
Citroen Berlingo EV
Smart Fortwo ED
Others
10
3
4
17
13
19
1
27
4
18
3

1
3
1
1
1
59
55
50
46
43
39
32
27
23
18
14
13
13
7
6
6
7
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
21
10
15
25
N/A
N/A
17
N/A
23
N/A
20
24
21
N/A
N/A
19


TOTAL7266.113100

Source: FEBIAC

* - 18 Bev + 14 Rex
** - 1 Pass + 9 LCV



Plug-Ins Versus Regular Hybrids

PlModel Aug. 2016
1Toyota RAV4 Hybrid174
2Toyota Auris Hybrid165
3Toyota Yaris Hybrid137
4 Toyota Prius94
5BMW X5 40e78


If we combine August regular hybrid sales with plug-ins, the Toyota Hybrids have the top positions all to themselves, with its compact SUV (The trend du jour) RAV4 ending in #1, followed by the Auris and the smaller Yaris.

Even the Toyota Prius managed to reach #4, with 94 units, it seems that locals have already digested the interesting looks of the former poster child of Green Mobility.
The best selling plug-in was only Fifth, with the BMW X5 PHEV collecting 78 units.


Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Germany August 2016

  

German Incentives, Month 2 - 

After completing the second month of incentives, registrations were finally up to 1.823 units, a 26% YoY rise.

With this result, the EV Share climbed a little to 0.64%, although it is still below the 0.75% registered last year.

But looking at the August models ranking, one wonders if the best selling models were influenced by the incentives, after all, the leader BMW i3 sales uptick has more to do with the new 33kWh battery release, the Renault Zoe has been a consistent best seller throughout the year and the Tesla Model S does not benefit from incentives.

The only exception seems to be the Renault Twizy, now back at three-digit sales for the first time in two years, can anybody assert that Quadricycles are also eligible to incentives?


PlModel
Sales  
1BMW i3280
2Renault Zoe256
3Mit. Outlander PHEV157
4Tesla Model S140
5Renault Twizy109

The YTD German EV ranking is known for constant changes and surprising performances, last month was no exception:

- The Tesla Model S climbed to #3, its highest ranking ever, thanks to 140 units, its best mid-quarter performance ever, does this means that the Californian is finally gaining traction?

- The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV also climbed one position, in this case to #7, and is now trying to beat Volkswagen Group models ahead in the race for Best Selling PHEV;

- The aforementioned Renault Twizy jumped to #10, it seems Germany is back to its 2012/13 romance with the tiny French vehicle;

- At the bottom of the ranking, there is a new model shining, the BMW 740e registered 47 units last month and is just 76 units behind its class leader Mercedes S500e, so it won't be a surprise if the BMW product reaches soon the throne in the F-segment/Full-size class.  

The manufacturers ranking is the epitome of a balanced market, with the top three brands all at 17% share and only 59 units separating the First (Volkswagen - 2.518 units) from the Third (Renault - 2.459), with BMW in Second, one(!) unit ahead of the French brand, with 2.460 units.

PlGermanyAug. YTD%'15 Pl
1
2
Renault Zoe
BMW i3 *
256
280
1.836
1.237
13
9
6
2
3Tesla Model S14097877
4
5
Audi A3 e-Tron
Volkswagen Golf GTE
41
39
908
852
6
6
5
4
6Volkswagen Passat GTE4380969
7Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV15780063
8Nissan Leaf44733510
9
10
11
Volkswagen e-Golf
Renault Twizy 
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
54
109
68
548
518
509
4
4
4
8
15
20
12
13
Volvo XC90 T8 
Mercedes C350e   e)
32
45
486
479
3
3
28
13
14Kia Soul EV
101
43931
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
30
32
33
34
35

Audi Q7 e-Tron
Volkswagen e-Up!
Mercedes B250e
BMW 330e
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
BMW X5 40e
Mercedes GLE500e
BMW i8
Mercedes S500e   e)
Volvo V60 Plug-In
Renault Kangoo ZE e)
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
Porsche Panamera PHEV
Mercedes GLC350e
BMW 740e
Citroen C-Zero
Smart Fortwo ED
Peugeot iOn
Tesla Model X
Citroen Berlingo EV e)
Peugeot Partner EV
Others
32
4
42
25
36
9
6
12
15
30
10
21
4
25
47
17
4
6
31
5

33
435
307
261
245
226
209
187
179
157
154
105
103
94
82
81
72
71
61
60
40
25
123
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
 0
1
24
12
14
32
17
22
29
16
19
18
N/A
25
23
N/A
N/A
36
11
36
N/A
33
33

TOTAL
1.823
14.408
100



* - 147 Bev + 133 Rex

e) Estimate

Source: kba.de

Sunday, September 18, 2016

China Buses Overview (Through 2010 to 2015)


A lot has been said about the ADL/BYD delivery of 51 Electric Buses in London, said to be the largest fleet in Europe, or the famed BYD buses plant in Lancaster - California, said to have a production target of 1.000 units/year, although these are positive signs that things are moving in the right direction, these numbers are dwarfed by what's going on in China...

Remember a certain article where this topic was scratched at the surface? Even then the numbers seemed huge, didn't they? 

Now, with some more detailed data, i can document the extraordinary and almost unbelievable growth that electric Buses registrations are experiencing in China:

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
BEV 523 1136 1904 1672 12760 94260
PHEV 1478 313 2637 16500 23051
HEV 3804 2825 5825 6111 797


It's hard to believe on these staggering numbers, isn't it?

And harder still when you read this little piece of info...

Anyway, assuming the numbers are real, it is even more outlandish the fact that BYD, that many believe to be the Master on Electric Buses, was actually only the Sixth Largest (5.631 units) plug-in Bus maker in China, behind Yutong (15.369), Nanjing KL (9.012), Zhongtong (8.904), Suzhou KL (7.115) and Dongfeng (5.761) and there are at least 15 Chinese Electric Bus makers, all having sold above 100 units in 2015. 

If anyone wishes to confirm or rebate these arguments, please do so, as it would help a lot to have a better picture of what's going on here.

Off-topic: And to think Volvo, the largest plug-in Bus maker in Europe, has yet to reach the 1.000 units production mark...